Overbought and Oversold RSI Readings - forex trading charts free

Overbought and Oversold RSI Readings ~ forex trading charts free

One classic interpretation of momentum indicators is that of overbought and oversold. Normally these are quite good signals when used within a consolidating market although mere oversold or overbought readings should not be used to buy or sell (respectively) without other forms of analysis and preferably in shorter term time frame charts.

However, these overbought and oversold extremes can be useful within trends also. In this type of interpretation it is vital that only trades in the direction of the trend be taken.

First we should remind ourselves of the definition of a trend.

Uptrend: is a sequence of higher highs and higher lows
Frequently, though not always, a trend support line can be drawn across the lows

Downtrend: is a sequence of lower lows and lower highs
Frequently, though not always, a trend resistance line can be drawn across the highs

A good reversal signal at the end of a trend may well be the break back below the support line in an uptrend or above the resistance line in a downtrend. In addition, to confirm the reversal completely a break of the last major swing low in an uptrend or the last swing high in a downtrend will also cause the uptrend to be complete.

The following chart is that of the daily Euro-Dollar chart which clearly has shown a strong and persistent uptrend over the course of both last year and this year. Note how all the major lows remained above the previous low in the move and this was accompanied by higher highs in all cases. Very clearly this can be described as a major uptrend.

Below the chart I have added Rapid RSI. I choose this form of RSI since it is more volatile and reaches overbought and oversold extremes more frequently than the traditional Welles-Wilder formula.
What can we deduce from the chart?

Well, at the left of the chart price was actually seeing a sideways trading range. Both overbought and oversold provided good signals. At these extreme readings, if the 4-hour and hourly charts also showed reversal signals they would have been worth following.

What I do want to point out is that overbought readings of RSI in an uptrend need not necessarily mean that the price is actually overbought. Unless they are accompanied by bearish divergences I tend to look at overbought readings as actually meaning “the market is still bullish.”

This does not always mean that price will continue higher and in most cases there is a pullback, but note how on those occasions that when RSI reached oversold while price has not penetrated the last low point, then it actually provides an excellent buying signal.

You will still need to confirm those oversold signals in the shorter time-frame charts, and it may well be worth combining these signals with the support and resistance supplied by an analytical forecaster. However, very clearly the mere fact that in an uptrend, following a price high that is marked as overbought by RSI, the move to oversold can be an excellent signal to take advantage of the next leg higher.


Now, we have just seen RSI move to overbought at the 1.4966 high. There is one difference however which is that this overbought level has produced a bearish divergence and at a time when price is poised just above a support line that has run from the 1.3359 corrective low. Breach will suggest the trend is complete and take price down towards the 1.40-1.41 area. This should cause a correction as the market remains very bearish Dollars but the technicals are suggesting that a new high in the Euro will not be seen.

The use of (Rapid) RSI in this manner does highlight an alternative method of using overbought and oversold extremes to great effect.
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How To Trade With Stochastics - forex market chart pattern

How To Trade With Stochastics ~ forex market chart pattern

The stochastic oscillator is a momentum indicator to compare the closing price of a commodity to its price range over a given time span. The idea behind this indicator is the prices tend to close near their past highs in bull markets, and near their lows in bear markets. Transaction signals can be spotted when the stochastic oscillator crosses its moving average.

Two stochastic oscillator indicators are typically calculated to assess future variations in prices, a fast (K) and slow (D). Comparisons of these statistics are a good indicator of speed at which prices are changing or the Impulse of Price.

The two Stochastics lines:

- K – Is the main line and is usually displayed as a solid line

- D – Is simply a moving average of the K and is usually displayed as a dotted line

There are two well known methods for using the K and D indicators to make decisions about when to buy or sell stocks. The first involves crossing of K and D signals, the second involves basing buy and sell decisions on the assumption that K and D oscillate.

In the first case, D acts as a trigger or signal line for K. A buy signal is given when K crosses up through D, or a sell signal when it crosses down through D. Such crossovers can occur too often, and to avoid repeated whipsaws one can wait for crossovers occurring together with an overbought/oversold pullback, or only after a peak or trough in the D line. If price volatility is high, a simple moving average of the Stoch D indicator may be taken. This statistic smoothes out rapid fluctuations in price.

In the second case, some analysts argue that K or D levels above 80 and below 20 can be interpreted as overbought or oversold. It is recommended that buying and selling be timed to the return back from these thresholds. In other words, one should buy or sell after a bit of a reversal. Practically, this means that once the price exceeds one of these thresholds, the investor should wait for prices to return back through those thresholds (e.g. if the oscillator were to go above 80, the investor waits until it falls below 80 to sell). In currencies we mainly use the Stochastic Oscillator on the 15 and 60 minute charts.

Use Stochastics in Trending market The key is when the market is trending up, we will look for oversold conditions (when the Stochastics fall below the oversold level (below 20) and rises back above the same level) to get ready to trade, and in the same way, when the market is trending down we will only look for overbought conditions (when the Stochastics rise above de overbought level (above 80) and falls back below the same level.

Use Stochastic in Trend-less market

- Buy when K falls below the oversold level (below 20) and rises back above the same level.

- Sell when K rises above de overbought level (above 80) and falls back below the same level.

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Learn How You can Make Gains from Using the Forex trading Grid Technique - charts of forex trading

Learn How You can Make Gains from Using the Forex trading Grid Technique ~ charts of forex trading

The most important part of how to make money using the no stop, hedged, Forex trading strategy will now be covered. In the preceding articles in this series we reviewed trading without stops, not being concerned about which way the price moves and places to cash in on profitable transactions. We are now going to show how you would make money buying and selling simultaneously using the grid strategy.

The no stop, hedged currency trading grid system uses the rule that one should be able to close a transaction at a gain no matter which way the market moves. The only way this is logically possible is that one would have a buy and a sell transaction active simultaneously. Most traders will say that doing this is not recommended but let’s look at this in more detail. 

Assuming a grid with grid gaps of 100 pips. We are going to use the simplest formation to show the principles involved. This formation is the 100% retractment formation where the price goes up to a grid level and then returns back to the starting grid level. Regrettably things become quite mathematical from here. We are also ignoring broker spreads to keep things simple. 

Let us say that a trader enters the market with a buy (buy 1) and sell (sell 1) deal active when a currency is at a level of say 1.0100. The price then goes to level 1.0200. The buy will then be positive by 100 pips. The sell will be negative by 100 pips. Now we would cash in our positive deal and bank our 100 pips. The sell is now however is carrying a loss of -100 pips. The grid system requires one to ensure that the trader can cash in on any movement in the Forex market. To do this one would again enter into a buy (buy 2) and a sell (sell 2) deal at this level (level 1.0200). 

Now, for convenience let us say that the price moves back to level 1.0100 (the starting point). 

The second sell (sell 2) has now gone positive by 100 pips and the second buy (buy 2) is making a loss of -100 pips. According to the grid trading rules you would cash the sell (sell 2) in and another 100 pips will be added to your account. That brings the grand total cashed in at this point to 200 pips (buy 1 and sell 2). At this stage the first sell that is active has moved from level 1.0200 where it was -100 to level 1.0100 where it is now breaking even. 

The 4 transactions added together now  incredibly show a gain:- 1st buy (buy 1) cashed in +100, 2nd sell (sell 2) cashed in +100, 1st sell (sell 1) now breaking even and the 2nd buy (buy 2) is -100. This gives an overall a gain of 100 pips in total. We can liquidate all the deals and have some champagne as we have made a profit of 100 pips.

Please make sure you understand the mathematics behind the activities discussed above. You may have to reread and draw the movements on a piece of paper to make sure you understand the concept. 

This formation is the 100% retracement formation where the price goes up to a grid level and then returns back to the starting grid level and results in a nice profit for the forex trader. There are many other market movements that turn this strange Buy and Sell at the same time activity into profits. The next article will cover the 50% retractment formation which produces the same amount of profit.

There will be much more on the no stop, hedged grid trading system in future articles in this directory. Do not miss them, whatever you do.

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