THE POWER OF DOING NOTHING IN FOREX - forex market basics

THE POWER OF DOING NOTHING IN FOREX ~ forex market basics

I will show you why doing nothing is surprisingly powerful in trading.

This simple exercise had a profound impact on how I will try to manage my trades in future. Once I open a trade and I’ve got my stop to break even its time to do nothing, just walk away.

Obviously the vast majority of my trades would have been stopped out at break even however the small percentage that survived were taken by the long term trend and became little profit pulling machines! To give you an idea of the power of doing nothing lets take just one trade from the EURUSD. I entered this short sell trade back in January 2010, it was a simple trend collapse breakout trade risking 35 pips (2% of my account) and I took profit at around 95 pips. Which is not bad right? I risked 1 to get almost 3. (see details of the move at end of this post)

Now lets take a look what happened if I did nothing. The Daily trend took this trade and it never came back to hit my break even stop. In June 2010 it hit a maximum profit of 2410 pips and if it wasn’t closed it would be sitting right now at 1250 pips. Realistically I believe any long term sell positions on the EURUSD would have been closed the moment the head and shoulders pattern played out on the daily chart at the end of June. This would have closed the trade with a profit of about 1800 pips.

Now here is the shocking part!

Remember that the initial risk on this trade was 35 pips, which was equivalent to 2% of the trading account.Closing the trade at 1800 pips would have resulted in a gain of 102.8% on the account! Remember, this is just one trade!
Obviously this doesn’t account for some losses also taken during that period. But to give you an idea of the power of doing nothing lets take the worst possible scenario. Lets say I’m the unluckiest trader alive and after that trade I lost every single trade I took on the EURUSD to date. My account would still be sitting at a gain of 56.8%! Thankfully I’m not the unluckiest trader alive and that trade was just one of many positions that that would have survived the trend fluctuations without being taken out at break even.

Keep in mind this is only on one pair!

Ok, so back to reality… It would be great to trade this way and I am confident that if I just took trades, moved to break even and then did nothing I would be a more profitable trader. Unfortunately I am human and having trades close at a loss or break even for weeks on end would be extremely difficult to cope with. A logical solution would be to split your positions into two. One half would be treated as normal and closed at your usual target resulting in a nice small gain on your account. The second half would be set at break even and left to hopefully catch a ride on the long term trend. Using this method in my example above that one trade would have still netted over 51%!

Hopefully this has given you the push to do some testing of your own but in the end it just boils down to an old, but very wise quote…

“Cut your losses and let your profits run”

(see details of this move posted in Apr 2010 by a former MIGBANK Researcher here Euro Crisis)
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TOOLS OF THE TRADE - books on forex trading pdf

TOOLS OF THE TRADE ~ books on forex trading pdf

My Friends, as most of you know, I am not the biggest champion of indicators; however I do know how to use them. I am creating this post for my Friends who want more information about different technical tools. I hope you find this very useful. If you have any questions about anything you have seen here you know where to find me. Also you may check out my youtube page that has videos that I think are helpful for both newer and seasoned traders. http://www.youtube.com/user/TRADERSFRIEND.
Education will help you to do what you need to do with Forex. NEVER STOP LEARNING!!!!!

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For all of my Friends who were seeking to broaden your understanding, I hope this helps. Thank you for all of your kindness and support always.

Happy Trading My Friends!

If you have any questions, you may reach me
at TradersFriend@yahoo.com


This blog is not in anyway an enticement or solicitation to trade in the Forex Market. These tips are for informational purposes only and are not to be substituted for legal advice or council. I have written this blog in hopes that it will help you to avoid some of the terrifying pitfalls I had in the Forex Market before I learned better.


Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you need for living expenses and cannot afford to lose.
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Multiple Time Frames combine with RSI and support resistance - forex trading charts eur/usd

Multiple Time Frames combine with RSI and support resistance ~ forex trading charts eur/usd

A technique to improve your trading decisions

Have you ever seen RSI overbought and wonder whether it was the right time to sell? Let’s face it, an overbought reading in a momentum oscillator can merely mean that price is strong and may even turn into an uptrend.

Is it a valid overbought signal? Do you sell? Where do you sell? Where should you place your stop?

Quite often using two charts of different time frames can help. For instance, let us suggest you have seen an overbought reading in the daily chart but there is no bearish divergence. What you can do is look at a shorter time frame chart, a 4-hour or 2-hour chart to see what is happening there an whether a more accurate sell signal can be identified. Let us look at recent example in EURUSD:

Above is the daily chart of EURUSD as it approached 1.3258. Daily Rapid RSI was showing an overbought reading but there was no bearish divergence. From this chart alone we probably couldn’t work out whether there was a selling opportunity or not.

This second image is the 2-hour chart of EURUSD but here it can be seen that the peak at 1.3258 was accompanied by a bearish divergence in Rapid RSI. We are therefore on warning that a reversal can occur and that the daily overbought reading may well be correct.

Next we have to identify a selling level and in this case it is on the break of the price support line which has touched price four times before it finally breaks and this is where we can place our sell-stop. The money management stop should ideally be placed above the 1.3258 high but if this is too high and would cause a large loss then we can look at placing a stop above the rising trend line. However, do note that is a rising trend line and could mean that your stop needs to be raised to allow a possible retest of the line.

In this case the trade would have been very profitable with a decline down close to the daily pivot support which rests around 1.3050. A take profit order can be placed just above this to exit the position at a tidy profit.

Utilizing a lower time frame chart to identify when Bollinger support/resistance will hold

Following on from the first description of using multiple time frame charts to both strengthen your analysis and enable tighter entry and exit trades, let us take another look at using these in a different example.

Many traders like to use Bollinger Bands to try and identify entry signals. The problem I have always had with them is that they only provide approximate support and resistance which causes problems in knowing where you should enter and where the stops should be placed. Not only that but sometimes they just don’t seem to work at all as a support/resistance tool and the judgment of when they’ll work appears purely subjective.

Take a look at the daily chart of GBPUSD:

In the center of the chart we can see that price has declined to the Bollinger low and on first touch it does bounce only to fall below the lower band and does so on three consecutive days. On the day before the absolute low Rapid RSI moves into the oversold extreme. Does this mean we can buy? Maybe. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t.

So what should we do?

The following chart is the 2 hour chart showing the approach to the low at 1.9400.

On the left of the chart we can see that price falls below two identical lows and these can then be considered as pivot resistance. We then see the three pushes lower and on the daily chart we know that the Rapid RSI went into an oversold extreme.

Do we buy at that point because is looks like the Rapid RSI on the 2 hour chart is developing a bullish divergence? The answer is “no.” Divergences should only be traded on a break of a pattern. In this case we have an intermediate downtrend line and it is only after the final low that price breaks above the trend line and thus confirms the bullish divergence in Rapid RSI. You will also note that following the break above the trend resistance that price reverses briefly to retest the trend line which provides a second buying opportunity.

Following the break of the trend line which was the day after the daily oversold reading price rallies by 200 points. That’s a good profit… Not only that, by waiting and observing the 2-hour chart you can avoid trying to pick the bottom as suggested in the daily chart.

Remember, it is normally best not to try and pick tops and bottoms as these will often provide losing trades. Waiting patiently for the right signal by fine-tuning the entry on a shorter time frame chart can reduce losing trades and make the final trade a more profitable one.

Good luck !

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Divergence in Apple - books on forex trading in india

Divergence in Apple ~ books on forex trading in india

Is a divergence building in Apple?


See the latest video post on Apple and what apple is up to:




This is for those of my friend who have other interest than Forex. This is in no way a solicitation to buy any product, it is posted for your information only!
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Moving Average Convergence and Divergence avoid MACD pitfall in your trading - forex trading charts for mac

Moving Average Convergence and Divergence avoid MACD pitfall in your trading ~ forex trading charts for mac

MACD is used quite widely among traders mainly, it would seem, because the basis for the indicator is something they can visualize – effectively measuring the degree of convergence or divergence of two exponential moving averages. Commonly traders will consider buying or selling on crossover of the MACD lines. However, there can be problems and it is worth understanding when these may occur.
Let us take a look at the MACD plot on a weekly chart of USDJPY:

Broadly we would be pleased with the general signals being generated from MACD in this chart. While the crossover of the MACD across the signal line never really occur at market extremes, in this case they are pretty close and one cannot expect a lagging indicator to provide signals at price extremes.
It can be seen that before the moving averages cross the MACD is signaling a reversal earlier and allowing an early entry into a potential trade. Perfect. We can begin to trade on this indicator then… Or can we..?
Take a look at the second chart, still the weekly chart of USDJPY but from a year or two later:

At first it looks quite good. MACD signals a sale into the large decline to the historic 79.70 low and a little later a reversal higher. There is lots of profit to be taken there. However, watch as the MACD peaks out soon after the initial rally from the 79.70 low. The two exponential moving averages continue to point higher and indeed do not cross lower until after the 147.65 peak. However, MACD spends around one year in a decline while price has continued to rally.
This is a recipe for losses.
Why is it that MACD can provide such a bad signal since it is based on two exponential moving averages?
The answer lies in the name: Moving Average Convergence and Divergence.
While the exponential moving averages are rising, the trend has slowed to the point that while only slightly the averages are converging – that is, moving closer together and this has caused the MACD to cross below the signal line.
Well, is there any way to control the trades to make sure that we do not make those trades? Indeed. One of the best tips I can offer is to remember the definition of a trend. An uptrend is where both highs and lows are moving higher. Thus, until the most recent low s broken there is no break/reversal of the trend.
Let us look at how this would have worked:

As can be seen, I have drawn a horizontal line under each successive swing low. At no point is one of these broken until after the final high to the upper right of the chart. Thus, by combining information garnered from the price chart you can avoid many loss making trades.Good luck !

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HIGH PROBABILITY DIVERGENCE SETUPS - basics about forex trading

HIGH PROBABILITY DIVERGENCE SETUPS ~ basics about forex trading

Welcome to the second part where I am explaining how you can use divergence with some tips and tricks I have learnt over the years to pinpoint market turning points with high accuracy. 

In the part 1 (price swing prediction) we discussed standard divergence and what to look for with your preferred indicator to spot this setup. Now its time to dig a little further and see how deep the rabbit hole goes! 

High Probability Divergence Setups!

Through years of trial and error I have discovered what works and what does not. Divergence by itself is a bit hit and miss, you never really know if the divergence will play ball or not. This is probably why many traders give it a try then decide to leave it for something supposedly better. Sadly, they didnt know how close they were to the pot of gold!

By combining divergence with some simple price action tools we can turn that hit and miss setup into a very accurate entry technique.

Before we go into these tools, let me show you my absolute favourite type of divergence. I call it the DTD & DBT (double top divergence / double bottom divergence). This type of divergence has pinpointed trend reversals more times than I can remember. All you are looking for is a double top or double bottom in price then for your preferred indicator to also show strong divergence. 

Below is an example of a DBD on the GBPUSD 4H chart, this setup captured a 700 pip trend reversal! In all examples below I am using RSI indicator set to 6 for divergence.

I know what youre thinking, that was cherry picked and just a one off right? Wrong, these setups happen all the time across all pairs, in fact lets take a look what happened at the end of the 700 pip move shown above.

Yep you guessed it another DTD which again captured a trend reversal of almost 900 pips!

The reason DTD and DBD setups are so powerful is because they combine confluence of support or resistance into the setup. In order to have similar success with standard divergence you will need to be extra picky about the setups you choose. Look for setups that happen as price is coming up against strong areas of support or resistance.

Timing Your Entries!

Entrys can be tough because most entry techniques are lagging and therefore get you into the move late eating into your potential profits. But dont worry, I am going to show two price action entry techniques I use all the time with astonishing success trading divergence setups.

Once I have a DTD/DBD or standard divergence with strong confluence I start watching price action at the close of each new candle. I am waiting for one of the two candle formations below to clearly appear. 

Once the candle formation forms and the candle has closed (very important) I enter at market with stops above/below the candle formation.

If you take another look at the two setups above on the GBPUSD you will see that both setups triggered with an engulfing candle formation! A fluke? Nope, this happens all the time :-)

Ok, so thats part two of this mini divergence course over and done with hopefully it has provided you with some new tools to add to your trading toolbox. Remember, the key to success is to be picky, wait for strong confluence to line up or better still a DTD/DBD setup.

We are not done yet though,  Follow me over the next few days for more awesome divergence tips and tricks.
Have fun & good trading!

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